Democracy Now! Daily Digest: A Daily Independent Global News Hour with Amy Goodman & Juan González for Monday, March 17, 2014

Democracy Now! Daily Digest: A Daily Independent Global News Hour with Amy Goodman & Juan González for Monday, March 17, 2014
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Snowden Docs Expose How the NSA "Infects" Millions of Computers, Impersonates Facebook Server
New disclosures from Edward Snowden show the NSA is massively expanding its computer hacking worldwide. Software that automatically hacks into computers — known as malware "implants" — had previously been kept to just a few hundred targets. But the news website The Intercept reports that the NSA is spreading the software to millions of computers under an automated system codenamed "Turbine." The Intercept has also revealed the NSA has masqueraded as a fake Facebook server to infect a target’s computer and exfiltrate files from a hard drive. We are joined by The Intercept reporter Ryan Gallagher.
TRANSCRIPT
This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.
AMY GOODMAN: We turn now to our last segment, the latest on leaks from Edward Snowden. TheIntercept.org reported last week the National Security Agency is dramatically expanding its ability to covertly hack into computers on a mass scale by using automated systems that reduce the level of human oversight in the process. The Intercept also revealed the NSA has masqueraded as a fake Facebook server to infect a target’s computer and exfiltrate files from a hard drive.
Joining us now is Ryan Gallagher from The Intercept, co-wrote the piece, "[How] the NSA Plans to Infect 'Millions' of Computers with Malware." Explain, Ryan.
RYAN GALLAGHER: Hi, Amy. Yeah, and the story we wrote last week, really, the key thing about it is the extent to which these techniques have really rapidly escalated in the last decade. And what we can see and what we reported was that, since about 2004, the National Security Agency has expanded the use of what it calls these "implants," which are sort of malicious software implants within computers and computer networks, and even phone networks, to basically steal data from those systems. About 10 years ago, they had, they say, about a hundred and a hundred and—between a hundred and 150 of these implants, but within the last decade that expanded to an estimated 100,000, in some reports, and they’re building a system to be capable of deploying "millions," in their own words, of these implants.
AMY GOODMAN: The revelation around the issue of Facebook has led Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg to call President Obama on Wednesday and demand an explanation. He later wrote in a blog post, quote, "I’ve been so confused and frustrated by the repeated reports of the behavior of the US government. When our engineers work tirelessly to improve security, we imagine we’re protecting you against criminals, not our own government."
RYAN GALLAGHER: Yeah, and Mark Zuckerberg was definitely very agitated, we think, about the report and seems to have got on the phone to Obama. And interestingly, the NSA later issued a—actually claimed that they hadn’t impersonated U.S. websites. However, their own documents actually say that they pretended to be the Facebook server for this particular surveillance technique, so their denial sort of doesn’t really hold up to scrutiny when compared with their own documents. And there’s a bit of sort of a—you know, there’s questions to be asked about that.
AMY GOODMAN: So how do people protect themselves?
RYAN GALLAGHER: Well, I mean, the problem is, if you’re really in the NSA’s crosshairs or one of these surveillance agencies’ crosshairs, it’s very difficult to protect yourself against it. But there are all kinds of methods that people can use to reduce their level of risk. For instance, you know, using encryption technology can guard against all kinds of surveillance, and using certain kinds of operating systems, like the Linux operating system, can limit their ability to target you in this way. But yeah, you know, this is a problem, that they’re developing these technologies to deliberately circumvent, you know, privacy-enhancing tools, security tools that people use. And that’s what a lot of people are very worried about, because that poses a fundamental question for the security of the Internet.
AMY GOODMAN: Is this legal, Ryan Gallagher?
RYAN GALLAGHER: Well, that’s a really good question. And what’s completely unclear, even in the documents that I’ve seen, is the level of oversight on the legal framework that underpins these techniques. When you’re deploying methods like this against a hundred, 150 people, as they were maybe, you know, 10 years ago, that’s pretty easy to manage. But they have deliberately expanded their techniques by making them automated, so there’s less human oversight. So it’s completely unclear to what extent these implants, these malware tools, are actually being sufficiently overseen, the legal framework that they operate in. We’ve tried to get clarity from the NSA on these issues, and they’ve declined to comment. So, these are really vital questions that should begin to be getting asked at this time, I think.
AMY GOODMAN: And the NSA’s response to your report?
RYAN GALLAGHER: Well, they actually—as they have been doing with most of the recent reports, they have just been putting out a kind of boilerplate statement that says they adhere to the law and that they only collect intelligence for legitimate purposes. But, you know, these statements are very, very vague, and they’re open to anyone’s interpretation of what they actually mean. I think that what we really need is some clear answers about specific, substantive issues and a bit more transparency on certainly a lot of the revelations that we’ve been reporting in the last couple of weeks.
AMY GOODMAN: Ryan Gallagher, I want to thank you for being with us. We’ll certainly link to your pieces at The Intercept, "How the NSA Plans to Infect 'Millions' of Computers with Malware" and "Compare the NSA’s Facebook Malware Denial to Its Own Secret Documents." Both articles appear at TheIntercept.org, a digital magazine launched by First Look Media.
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After Crimea Votes to Secede, How Will U.S. & Russia Handle Gravest Crisis Since Cold War?
The United States and the European Union are warning Russia not to annex Crimea after voters there overwhelmingly backed a referendum to leave Ukraine. Crimean authorities say 96.8 percent of voters supported the referendum to join Russia, but many members of the ethnic Ukrainian and Muslim Tatar minorities stayed home in a boycott. The Obama administration has threatened sanctions on Russia if Crimea follows through and secedes. But Russia has vowed to approve Crimea’s bid in a parliamentary vote. On Saturday, the Russian government vetoed a U.S.-backed Security Council resolution declaring the referendum invalid. Russian forces also seized a natural gas terminal in Ukraine, just outside Crimea’s regional border. The situation in Crimea has sparked the gravest crisis in East-West relations since the Cold War. We discuss the Crimea vote and its diplomatic fallout with three guests: Oliver Bullough, Caucasus editor for the Institute for War and Peace Reporting; Nicholas Clayton, a freelance journalist who has been reporting from Crimea and covering the South Caucasus since 2009; and Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center.
TRANSCRIPT
This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.
AMY GOODMAN: The United States and the European Union are warning Russia not to annex Crimea after voters there overwhelmingly backed a referendum to leave Ukraine and join Russia. Crimean authorities said 96.8 percent of voters in the Black Sea peninsula supported the referendum, but many members of the ethnic Ukrainian and Muslim Tatar minorities in Crimea boycotted the poll. Earlier today, the Crimean Parliament also voted in favor of the region joining Russia.
The situation in Crimea has sparked the gravest crisis in East-West relations since the Cold War. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said the vote in Crimea will not be recognized by the international community.
SECRETARY OF STATE JOHN KERRY: The United States position on that referendum, I must say, is clear, and it’s clear today. We believe the referendum is contrary to the constitution of Ukraine, is contrary to international law, is in violation of that law, and we believe it is illegitimate and, as the president put it, illegal under the Ukrainian constitution. Neither we nor the international community will recognize the results of this referendum. And we also remain deeply concerned about the large deployments of Russian forces in Crimea and along the eastern border with Russia.
AMY GOODMAN: On the eve of the vote, Russian forces seized a natural gas terminal in Ukraine just outside Crimea’s regional border. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov defended the referendum vote in Crimea, saying there’s a historical precedent for peoples and regions pursuing self-determination.
SERGEY LAVROV: [translated] As far as statements by our Western partners on unacceptability of the referendum, I have already explained our view on the subject. We base our position on the fact that nobody canceled the right of people to self-determination. This right is one of the main principles of the United Nations Charter.
AMY GOODMAN: Tension is also rising in other parts of eastern Ukraine, which has seen a series of pro-Russian rallies. Earlier today, the Ukrainian Parliament endorsed a presidential decree for a partial military mobilization to call up 40,000 reservists to counter Russia’s military actions. It’s also unclear what will happen to the Ukrainian military bases in Crimea. They have been surrounded for weeks by Russian forces.
To talk more about the situation in Crimea, we’re joined by Oliver Bullough from Crimea. He is the Caucasus editor for the Institute for War and Peace Reporting. His book is called Let Our Fame Be Great: Journeys Among the Defiant People of the Caucasus. Nicholas Clayton is a freelance journalist who just left Crimea. He has covered the South Caucasus since 2009. And in Moscow, we’re joined by Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, recently published an article in The Guardian titled, "The Crisis in Crimea Could Lead the World into a Second Cold War."
Let’s go first to Crimea itself. Oliver, can you talk about the vote, what took place, what was the atmosphere, and the response right now with this overwhelming vote for secession from Ukraine to join Russia?
OLIVER BULLOUGH: Well, the first thing about the vote is the result. The result was never in any doubt. The only option, essentially, on the ballot paper was either—well, you has a choice: to leave Ukraine or to join Russia. There was no "no" option. So, there was never any question that this would go one way. And it did indeed go that way. It went that way overwhelmingly, though, personally, I think possibly the results given are a little bit inflated. I can’t believe that the turnout was as high as 83 percent, certainly considering the fact that all the Ukrainians who live in Crimea and all the Crimean Tatars, who together make up, you know, more than 30 percent of the population, boycotted the polls. So I think the results were inflated, but essentially among—
AMY GOODMAN: Can you explain, Oliver, what the question was? What was the vote—what were the questions that were asked, the choice?
OLIVER BULLOUGH: Well, there were two. There were two choices. There wasn’t a yes-or-no question, like the ordinary referendum is. There were two choices. One was to join Russia, and the other was to return to the 1992 constitution. Now, I’m personally not entirely sure what the 1992 constitution consists of, and no one I talked to really seems to know, but that didn’t matter. In fact, only 3 percent of the people voted for that option anyway. It was an overwhelming 97 percent in favor of joining Russia.
And that’s certainly what the government here has been pressing ahead with today. They have already passed a series of laws to move to the Moscow time zone, to adopt the ruble, to accept a lot of money from the Russian budget, which will double the budget, the amount of money available to the government here. So, they’re not wasting any time in Parliament, though it should be said the mood on the street is rather subdued, I think probably because there was such an enormous party last night that quite a lot of people have got a bit of a hangover this morning.
AMY GOODMAN: And what was the atmosphere in Crimea during the vote?
OLIVER BULLOUGH: Well, you know, it was—people were turning up for the polling stations. People were casting their votes in a fairly orderly manner. But it got increasingly jolly as the day wore on and it became obvious which way the vote was going to go. And people gathered on the central Lenin Square underneath the big towering statue of the founder of the Bolshevik state. And there was a rock concert, and people gathered, waved Russian flags, chanted "Russia! Russia! Russia!" as if they were at a football match. It occurred to me about halfway through that it was like a combination of Russia winning the World Cup and the Nuremberg rally. It was a very peculiar atmosphere of sort of a degree of celebration and also as a strange and slightly disquieting sense of triumphalism that I, as a non-Russian, found a little bit weird.
AMY GOODMAN: And the attitudes of the different populations—those who were boycotting, those who were voting—the attitude of the Russians in Crimea, and also the press?
OLIVER BULLOUGH: Well, I’ve just been talking—spent quite a lot of time talking to a Ukrainian lady, and she was telling me that, for her, for Orthodox Christians, they have three mothers: They have their own mother, they have their motherland, and they have the Virgin Mary. Her own mother died last year, and she said it felt, for her, like cancer that took—cancer took away her own mother, and now cancer had taken away her motherland, and all that she had left to trust in was the Virgin Mary. That’s what she told me. She was absolutely devastated by what has happened.
The Crimean Tatars, who, as I say, are—they’re a Muslim minority here. They’re also very concerned, definitely on edge about the prospect of going to Russia. They feel that Ukraine has guaranteed their rights very well over the last 23 years, and they have no interest in joining Russia at all. However, the majority of the population here are Russians, and they’re very happy about it, not least because they’re going to move onto the Russian system of social security and social benefits, which means that pensions will, at the minimum, double, and so they’re all already counting the money. I’ve spent a lot of time in a bank this morning, and there was a steady queue of people going in to ask the cashiers when exactly it was that the new Russian benefits would start arriving in their bank accounts.
AMY GOODMAN: Dmitri Trenin, you’re in Moscow at the Moscow Carnegie Center. You’ve written a number of pieces for different publications. Your piece for Foreign Policy, "Welcome the Cold War II: This is What It Will Look Like." Talk about this vote, from where—from your perch in Moscow right now. What is the attitude there?
DMITRI TRENIN: Well, I think that the attitude of most people in Moscow is that the people of Crimea have been able to decide their fate, and they’re joining Russia. There will be some sacrifice that the Russian people will have to pay for that, but it’s certainly worth having, because what’s been done is correcting the injustice committed about 70 years ago, when Crimea was detached from the then-Soviet Russian Republic and attached to the then-Soviet Ukrainian Republic.
AMY GOODMAN: And from the attitude, the position of—the position of President Putin, if you could explain what he sees right now and what the Russian Parliament will do?
DMITRI TRENIN: Well, I think it’s quite clear what the Russian Parliament will do. The Russian Parliament is paving the way for Crimea to become part of the Russian Federation, a republic within the Russian Federation. And they started working on that some time ago. They are pretty well advanced. There will be no delay. So I think that in terms of the Russian constitution, everything will be done quickly so that Crimea becomes part of the Russian Federation.
As I said, this is something that is widely supported by the bulk of the Russian population. Mr. Putin’s approval rating has—already very high last month, 61 percent, has increased to about 71 percent. So the bulk of the people welcome Crimea’s reintegration, reunification with Russia. This does not mean that—a lot of people disagree. Part of the intelligentsia, the opposition, especially the non-systemic opposition, those who are not represented on the Duma, they staged a march in Moscow—not a very numerous one, but a demonstration of rejection of this policy by President Putin.
Now, I don’t think that Putin pays too much attention to that. He sees himself on the right side of history. He sees himself correcting the injustices done at the end of the Cold War, the end of the Soviet Union. He sees himself supported by the Russian people. And he is well prepared, I think, to take on his opponents both domestically and internationally.
AMY GOODMAN: Eight U.S. senators concluded their trip to Ukraine Saturday after meeting with leaders of Ukraine’s interim government. This is the group leader, Senator John McCain.
SEN. JOHN McCAIN: I don’t believe there will be a reignition of the Cold War, but I do believe it’s long overdue that we understand Vladimir Putin for who he is and what he is and what his ambitions are. This is the person that stated that the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century was the breakup of the Soviet Union. This is a person who wants to restore the near abroad. This is a person that occupies parts of the sovereign nation of Georgia, that occupies the Transnistria and Moldova, that has now acted in an act of naked aggression. And again, all of us are concerned about recent reports of an additional military buildup in this area. And so, we have to treat him for what he is. And that does not reignite the Cold War, but it means we enact steps that make it clear to Vladimir Putin that his ambitions will not be realized by the great community of nations that would resist it.
AMY GOODMAN: That’s Senator John McCain, just back from Ukraine. Dmitri Trenin in Moscow at the Carnegie Moscow Center, your response?
DMITRI TRENIN: Well, I think that we can debate what constitutes a Cold War, what does not. In my view, a situation in which there is more competition than collaboration is—would be my explanation and my—explanation of what the Cold War is. I don’t think that people will pay much attention—people here will pay much attention to what the senator has just said. I think they basically see him and so many others as being—trying to hem Russia in and hold Russia down, and I don’t believe that this is something new.
However, I think that the policy of Putin will not aim at actually making the confrontation more than what it will necessarily be. I think that Putin’s ambition, if you like, or Putin’s next aim, is to help Ukraine toward some kind of a federation, some kind of a system in which the southern and eastern portions of that country, mostly Russophone, enjoy a wide degree of linguistic, cultural and economic autonomy, and that Ukraine itself, as a country, does not join NATO or the European Union or become associated with the European Union. That, I think, is Mr. Putin’s—call it ambition, call it plan, call it goal, but that’s, I think, what he is aiming at at this point.
AMY GOODMAN: Dmitri Trenin, I think that’s something in the United States people don’t exactly have a very informed concept about, Russia’s attitude toward the expansion of NATO. Could you explain how Russia sees what has taken place over the last years?
DMITRI TRENIN: Well, first of all, let me clarify that. By Russia, I would mean primarily the Russian establishment—the Russian government, the Kremlin and the establishment. I think that the establishment have seen NATO’s enlargement, which began about two decades ago, as an attempt or as a project by the victorious powers in the Cold War, led by the United States, to consolidate their wins at the expense of Russia’s security. They saw NATO coming closer to Russia’s borders. And they saw their own bids—and there have been numerous bids by Russia to join NATO—they saw those bids rejected by, essentially, the United States. So having no chance to become part of the alliance, and having the alliance, which used to be the Soviet Union’s adversary in the Cold War, coming closer and closer to Russia’s borders, they certainly became very concerned.
And I think that from the standpoint of Mr. Putin and his associates in the Kremlin, Ukraine is a red line. And anyone who ventured out there had to be met with some kind of a response, which is exactly what happened after the toppling of President Yanukovych, who was, you know, someone who was neither with Russia more fully with the West, but he was replaced by a virulently anti-Russian and notionally pro-Western bunch of people. And that, to Mr. Putin and his associates, was the West crossing the red line.
AMY GOODMAN: And the attitude of the United States, when it came to what took place and Yanukovych being pushed out, calling that constitutional, but calling the referendum in Crimea unconstitutional?
DMITRI TRENIN: Well, I would say that the Russians have become used to people essentially using various standards for their own behavior and for other people’s behavior. Basically, President Putin in his press conference recently intimated that he was doing the things that basically the United States was doing. He was—he was placing the legitimate above the legal. If you need something and you need it badly, you go for it. It may not be legal, but if it’s your—if it’s in your national interest, then you go for it—except that the cases of Libya or Kosovo or Iraq, arguably, were less important for the United States’ national security interests than the issue of Crimea and Ukraine is, or was, for Mr. Putin and the Kremlin.
AMY GOODMAN: We’re talking to Dmitri Trenin in Moscow at the Carnegie Moscow Center, Oliver Bullough in Crimea with the Institute for War and Peace. And when we come back, we’ll also be joined by Nicholas Clayton, a freelance journalist who just came from Crimea, is in Istanbul. This is Democracy Now! Stay with us.
[break]
AMY GOODMAN: Pianist-Extremist, a masked figure inspiring protesters in central Kiev by playing piano on and around the barricades of Independence Square. This is Democracy Now!, democracynow.org, The War and Peace Report, as we continue our discussion about the vote in Crimea, the overwhelming referendum vote for secession from Ukraine to join Russia. We’re joined in Moscow by Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, and now we’re turning to, as well, Nicholas Clayton, who is a freelance journalist just back from Crimea and Ukraine. He has covered the South Caucasus since 2009, contributed a recent piece in USA Today called "Military Tension High as Crime Holds Referendum." Nicholas, you’re now speaking to us from Istanbul, but talk about the new leadership in Ukraine and what their response has been.
NICHOLAS CLAYTON: Well, the new leadership, it appears that they’re still very much in crisis mode, attempting to hold the country together. Many of them were not in the government before the Yanukovych regime fell. One of the more controversial things that has happened recently and one of the firmer gestures that the new government has made is saying that those advocating secession in other Ukrainian territories will be apprehended. And on one hand, this is a bit of an escalation of the rhetoric within Ukraine; however, it also represents very much the crisis mentality of the new government. As you mentioned before, there have been increasing protests in the cities of Kharkiv, Donetsk and Lugansk, where pro-Russia and pro-Ukraine protesters have clashed, and three people have died so far. There’s been accusations traded, but Kiev has claimed that a large portion, if not the majority, of these pro-Russian protesters are indeed Russian citizens that have come—been bused in from Russia, and they’re also tightening the border. It appears that they’re trying very hard to avoid any other province in Ukraine from getting the Crimea treatment at this point.
AMY GOODMAN: On Sunday, a prominent Russian state TV host, who has close ties to Vladimir Putin, warned Russia could launch a nuclear strike against the United States. The anchor, Dmitry Kiselyov, spoke with a picture of a nuclear explosion behind him and words "into radioactive ashes."
DMITRY KISELYOV: [translated] Russia is the only country in the world that is really able to turn the United States into radioactive ashes. I don’t know if it’s a coincidence, but Obama called Putin on January 21st and probably again tried to put pressure on him. But on the very next day, on January 22nd, the official newspaper of the government of Russia published an article where it was clearly explained, in detail, how our system of guaranteed nuclear revenge works. It is called "Perimeter." In the U.S.A., it was nicknamed "Dead Hand." I actually advise you read the article.
AMY GOODMAN: That’s a Russian state TV host who has close ties to Vladimir Putin, speaking on Sunday. His name is Dmitry Kiselyov. Nicholas Clayton, your response?
NICHOLAS CLAYTON: Well, I mean, this obviously shows how heated the rhetoric has become. And I think, honestly, there—you know, this has to be looked at from two different ways. The whole situation is very much a crisis within Ukraine politics and also, obviously, the clash between the East and the West.
And as we’ve discussed already this hour, I do think that many in the West underestimated how strategic Ukraine, and particularly Crimea, is to Russia. The port of Sevastopol has been the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet since imperial days, since the 18th century, and it actually is probably the best harbor in the Black Sea for a large fleet and one of the only ones that could safely hold a large fleet. It has a deep harbor, it’s very large, and it’s protected on both sides by hills, which means the wind is not a factor. If Russia were to be booted from there, it would have to drastically reduce the size of its fleet and spend billions of dollars attempting to build up facilities in one of its other ports in order to hold it. And the Russian Black Sea Fleet is the portion of the Russian navy that it uses to project naval force into not only the Black Sea, where it has significant interests, but also the Mediterranean Sea and through the Sinai and the Indian Ocean, and therefore, it’s an important portion of their Middle East strategy and their foreign policy in those regions.
And so, this really is a—what the Russians call a steel interest, something that is certainly a red line and certainly something that if Russia had to retreat from, would be very—would very much hurt their foreign policy and their ability to project power in the world. And we saw—this is partially why Russia moved so quickly in the upper house, was that many figures in the new government in Kiev did make statements saying that they wanted to basically cancel the lease that Russia has for the use of the base in Sevastopol. The current lease gives Russia the right to use that port until 2042, but there—in the past, previous governments have also tried to push Russia out, and it has been a major factor in Russia’s relationship with Ukraine since the end of the Soviet Union and very much—very much has been a huge card in the East-West battle over Ukraine, as well.
AMY GOODMAN: I mean, we saw what happened when the U.S. military was concerned that U.S. interests were being threatened in the Panama Canal when they controlled it: The U.S. invaded Panama.
NICHOLAS CLAYTON: Yeah, actually, it’s an interesting—interestingly analogous situation. And, you know—and you add to this the fact that, I mean, while Russia’s accusations of threats towards Russian citizens in Crimea and other places in eastern Ukraine are definitely hyperbolic, and there’s little to no evidence that the Russian speakers were really threatened physically by the change of government in Ukraine, there are nonetheless more serious fears and a lot of apprehension among Russian speakers in those portions of the country, absent some of this media blitz that Russia has been piping out.
I mean, to use a crude analogy for the United States, it would be as if the Occupy movement—and regardless of what you think of the Occupy movement or its politics, but if it had continued and grown in intensity to the point where it led to violence that left over a hundred people dead, including a couple dozen police officers, and took power in the United States, filling up a government with protest leaders and a mix of the more liberal wing of the Democratic Party, right or wrong, that would automatically, you know, force a very strong reaction and a lot of paranoia in the conservative portions of the country.
And the way that the Ukraine has been politically divided over this time—and this is this—we’re seeing a similar reaction, that the Ukraine has been internally and politically divided between East and West. And even a lot of Russians that didn’t necessarily fear—didn’t have specific fears about their rights, nonetheless, the fact that there was an overthrow of the government just a month ago, and all of the uncertainty that came from that, many did—you know, in Crimea, were saying that they were looking for some sort of sign of protection or stability. And in Crimea, that came in the form of Russia. And that’s why it’s really important for the Western powers, as they’ve come in, to understand that, you know, right or wrong, there are many in both Ukraine and in Russia, obviously, that do not recognize the new Ukrainian government in Kiev as legitimate.
And so, while it’s important to support that government in the short term to make sure that the Ukraine remains stable, I think it’s also important for Western leaders to understand that the Maidan movement in Kiev did not necessarily represent every Ukrainian, just like the Occupy movement was not necessarily supported by constituencies in Kansas and Utah, and that there needs to be a solution and a push for a solution that incorporates the interests of both sides and that can reduce the overall internal tensions within Ukraine.
AMY GOODMAN: Dmitri Trenin, the comparison of the U.S. and the West immediately recognizing Kosovo as an independent nation compared to the response to the referendum in Crimea, how is that seen in Moscow?
DMITRI TRENIN: Well, I think it’s ironic. It’s interesting that the West and Russia have traded places. I would say cynics would say that this is normal because their interests demand that they do so. The Kosovo independence was not—was not achieved with the consent of the Serbian government. It did not have a referendum. And yet, it was recognized by most of European countries and by the United States. The Russians did not recognize it. But now, the Russians are using the Kosovo precedent to justify their position on Crimea.
And although it is clear that the government in Kiev—the revolutionary government in Kiev, I should say—does not have an impeccable legal mandate, to put it mildly, it is clear that the—again, whatever you think of the referendum, the Russian role in it, the legality of it, the short order holding of that referendum—it is clear that the vast majority of the people in Crimea welcome the chance to be reunited with Russia, and there—the West does not recognize the referendum. So, you have—you have the West and Russia changing places depending on, essentially, their interests. This is a good illustration of double standard, I would say, on both sides.
AMY GOODMAN: Very quickly to both of you, as we wrap up, what do you think could diminish the tensions now? The U.S. is pushing for increased sanctions against Russia. Let’s start with Dmitri Trenin in Moscow.
DMITRI TRENIN: Well, I think that we will have to go through a period of heightened tensions. The question is how long this period will be, how deep the sanctions will bite, what kind of response will Russia give. I think that we’re standing at the beginning of some pretty turbulent period in international relations.
AMY GOODMAN: Nicholas Clayton?
NICHOLAS CLAYTON: Well, it’s difficult to see what—you know, what each side would be looking to get out of it at this stage. The unfortunate part is that trust has very much been undermined by several episodes within this whole crisis. And at this point, Russia likely looks at the situation like it’s gotten what it wants, and from the Western standpoint, that they seem to be putting most of their backing behind the government in Kiev, therefore they don’t want to make concessions on that account, either. So, while a federalist option and some sort of mutual compromise involving autonomy for certain regions would be certainly beneficial to the country potentially, it’s difficult to see if both sides have the willingness to really come together on that.
AMY GOODMAN: We’re going to leave it there. Nicholas Clayton, freelance journalist, recently reported from Crimea, now in Istanbul, most recently wrote a piece in USA Today. And I want to thank Dmitri Trenin for joining us, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center. Among his pieces, "The Crisis in Crimea Could Lead the World into a Second Cold War." And before that, Oliver Bullough, speaking to us from Crimea, he was a Reuters Moscow correspondent, now the Caucasus editor of Institute for War and Peace Reporting.
This is Democracy Now! We’ll be back in a minute speaking with Patrick Cockburn on this third anniversary of the Syrian conflict. Stay with us.
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Endless War? As Syria Conflict Enters 4th Year, Deadly Stalemate Favors Assad Regime
The conflict between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and rebels seeking his ouster has just entered its fourth year. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says more than 146,000 people have been killed since the Syrian conflict began on March 15, 2011, roughly half of them civilians. The conflict has displaced more than nine million people, with 2.5 million refugees living outside Syria and 6.5 million displaced within the country. We are joined by Patrick Cockburn, Middle East correspondent for The Independent, who has just returned from several weeks of reporting from Syria.
TRANSCRIPT
This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.
AMY GOODMAN: We turn now to Syria, where the conflict between President Bashar al-Assad and rebels seeking his ouster has just entered its fourth year. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says more than 146,000 people have been killed since the conflict began March 15, 2011, roughly half of them civilians. The conflict has displaced more than nine million people, with two-and-a-half million refugees living outside Syria and six-and-a-half million displaced within the country.
Last week, Save the Children reported several thousand Syrian kids have died because of a drastic reduction in access to health services, losing their lives to diseases and conditions including cancer, epilepsy, asthma, diabetes, hypertension and kidney failure. Overall, at least 10,000 children have died in violence.
Last month, the second round of peace talks aimed at resolving the conflict ended in deadlock in Geneva. This is U.N. special envoy Lakhdar Brahimi.
LAKHDAR BRAHIMI: I’m very, very sorry, and I apologize to the Syrian people that their hopes, which were very, very high that something will happen here—I think that, you know, what has—the little that has been achieved in Homs gave them even more hope that maybe this is the beginning of the coming out of this horrible crisis they are in. I apologize to them that, on these two rounds, we haven’t helped them very much.
AMY GOODMAN: U.N. envoy Lakhdar Brahimi is now in Iran for talks with top Iranian leaders on the Syrian conflict.
Earlier this month, a United Nations panel said the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is waging a campaign of siege warfare and starvation against hundreds of thousands of civilians. The Commission of Inquiry said Syrians are being "denied humanitarian aid, food and such basic necessities as medical care, and must choose between surrender and starvation." The report also faults Syrian rebels for scores of extrajudicial killings.
This weekend, in a key symbolic victory for the Assad regime, the Syrian military said it recaptured the town of Yabrud, the last rebel stronghold near the Lebanese border. Government forces and Lebanese allies from the group Hezbollah have besieged the town for weeks in an attempt to control key transport routes. Yabrud had been controlled by the opposition for much of the last three years.
To find out more, we are joined by Democracy Now! video stream by Patrick Cockburn, the Middle East correspondent for The Independent. His latest piece on Syria is called "An Unhappy Anniversary: Why the End of Bashar al-Assad is as Far Away as Ever—and How Syria’s Rebels Lost the Plot." He was in Syria for several weeks last month.
Welcome back to Democracy Now!, Patrick. Well, talk about this third anniversary.
PATRICK COCKBURN: Well, it’s very bad for Syria and very bad for Syrians, as you’ve just been describing. There’s a stalemate on the ground, but it’s a stalemate somewhat in favor of the government. They’re advancing, taking Yabrud, advancing in Aleppo. They’re taking the southern suburbs in Damascus. They’re getting stronger, but not so strong that they’re going to win. The whole of the north, the northeast is held by the opposition and, above all, by the jihadis, by Jabhat al-Nusra, which is the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, and the former al-Qaeda representative, the Islamic State of Iraq, so—the Islamic State of the Levant. So, there’s no way, I think, that this war can really be seen ending this year or in the next few years.
AMY GOODMAN: Your comments on the failure of the peace talks in Geneva?
PATRICK COCKBURN: I think once John Kerry had said it was all going to be about transition and Iran was not going to come, they were going to fail. I mean, there’s something pretty hypocritical about this, to my mind, because what basically the West is doing, and the regional powers like Saudi Arabia, is asking Bashar al-Assad to step down, for the regime to end. But the regime holds 13 out of 14 provincial capitals. It holds most of the populated areas. Militarily, it’s growing stronger, not weaker. So why should it leave power? So, although there’s a pretense, I think, that this is looking towards peace, the only way that Assad would leave power, if there’s a complete transformation of the situation on the battlefield, and that could only happen over a period of years. So what looks like an attempt to make peace is in fact providing the ingredients for a long war.
AMY GOODMAN: Several representatives from humanitarian aid agencies visited Lebanon this weekend to mark the third anniversary of the Syrian conflict. Again, over 145,000 people have been killed, millions forced to leave their homes since 2011. Speaking in Beirut, the U.N. high commissioner for refugees, António Guterres, called for border restrictions to be relaxed to allow those most at risk to flee to safety.
ANTÓNIO GUTERRES: For all borders to be open to Syrians, and in particular to Syrian children. To see Syrian children drowning in the Mediterranean today, after fleeing the conflict, the dramatic conflict of Syria, is something totally unacceptable. Borders need to be open everywhere. Visa policies need to be open everywhere.
AMY GOODMAN: The U.N. high commissioner for refugees, António Guterres, also urged the international community to respond to the crisis.
ANTÓNIO GUTERRES: Knowing that nine million people are displaced, between refugees and internally displaced, the largest population displaced in the world today, it’s something that really should deserve a much stronger commitment of the international community, to stop this war, first of all, and then to mobilize our resources for effective humanitarian assistance to the Syrian victims and for solidarity with countries like Lebanon.
AMY GOODMAN: That’s the U.N. high commissioner for refugees, António Guterres. Patrick Cockburn, can you talk about that and the report, for example, from the U.N. panel that the Assad regime is waging a campaign of siege warfare and starvation against hundreds of thousands of civilians?
PATRICK COCKBURN: It is waging a war of sieges and sealing off areas that the rebels take, bombarding them and so forth. We also have to bear in mind, of course, that the opposition, the rebels, are doing exactly the same thing where they can. There are two Shia towns outside Aleppo—Nabil and al-Zahra—a population of about 60,000, who are pro-government, and they are surrounded and besieged and starved. So, you know, you have to look at this—look at both sides. You know, this is a genuine civil war. All these atrocious humanitarian tragedies won’t end until the war ends.
I think—bear in mind another thing, which is, in north and eastern Syria, and right over through northern Iraq, the jihadis have taken over now, al-Qaeda-type organizations. Right up the Syrian-Iraq border, a frontier doesn’t really exist anymore for them. Right up from Fallujah, through Iraq, from Syria up the Turkish border, all this is held by jihadis, by people who are either al-Qaeda or very similar to al-Qaeda. So, while that remains out of control, that’s another contributing factor to the war going on and on. And I think in Western capitals they tend to underestimate what has happened in this very large area in Iraq and Syria, really from the Iranian frontier to the Mediterranean coast, that the jihadis have taken over and have no plans to make peace with anybody.
AMY GOODMAN: You mentioned, Patrick, Iraq. And just in our headlines today, we talked about the U.S. confirming a new round of weapons shipments to Iraq. The U.S. embassy in Baghdad says nearly a hundred Hellfire missiles and hundreds of thousands of ammunition rounds have been delivered this month, the Obama administration accelerating weapons aid in recent months to support the Iraqi government’s campaign against militant groups. Can you talk about the connections between Iraq and Syria and the significance of this?
PATRICK COCKBURN: Yeah, I would think the significance of this is that basically it’s insignificant, that it’s the administration trying to show it’s doing something. But a hundred Hellfire missiles and some ammunition, first of all, the Iraqi government could both get it elsewhere if it wanted to, and secondly, it completely underestimates the size of what is happening. From Fallujah, capital of Mosul, city of a million in the north, breed other places that al-Qaeda, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, basically exactly the same as al-Qaeda, are taken over in Sunni areas. This sort of extra military supplies don’t make any difference at all. When you get them into Syria, not just in north and east, but, you know, quite close to Damascus, in—there’s a Christian town, Ma’loula, is not so far from Damascus, Jabhat al-Nusra have taken over there. The Christians have fled. This is a genuine civil war, and just looking for the humanitarian situation to improve really isn’t enough when it comes to open borders. Remember, you know, the Turks have left the border open, 500-mile border, over which jihadis and al-Qaeda organizations have been moving freely. That probably needs to be shut. [inaudible] have any approach to peace.
AMY GOODMAN: And finally, just we have 20 seconds, on the issue of chemical weapons, what’s happening with the chemical weapons being removed from Syria?
PATRICK COCKBURN: Well, they are removing them. You know, it’s not easy to do. It moves over roads that are susceptible to attack, where fighting is going on. You mentioned Yabrud, the town of Yabrud earlier, which has just be taken by the Syrian army. But that—you know, you can see that from the main road. So, you know, it’s difficult to move chemical weapons up and down roads when there is fighting maybe a few—you know, half a mile away. So I think it’s not too surprising it’s delayed. But I can’t really imagine the government in Damascus having any ploy to retain some of the chemical weapons.
AMY GOODMAN: Patrick Cockburn, I want to thank you for being with us, Middle East correspondent for The Independent. We’ll link to your pieces there, including your last, "An Unhappy Anniversary: Why the End of Bashar al-Assad is as Far Away as Ever—and How Syria’s Rebels Lost the Plot." He just recently returned from Syria.
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Headlines:
U.S. Warns Russia After Crimea Votes to Secede
Crimea has formally asked to join Russia after voters overwhelmingly approved a referendum to secede from Ukraine. Crimean authorities say 96.8 percent of voters supported the referendum, but many members of the ethnic Ukrainian and Muslim Tatar minorities in Crimea stayed home in a boycott. The Obama administration has threatened sanctions on Russia if Crimea follows through and secedes. Russia has vowed to approve Crimea’s bid in a parliamentary vote. On Saturday, the Russian government vetoed a U.S.-backed Security Council resolution declaring the referendum invalid. Russia’s occupation of Crimea also sparked a massive opposition protest at home, with tens of thousands marching in Moscow on Saturday against military intervention in Crimea. It was Russia’s largest opposition rally since 2012. Tension meanwhile is rising in parts of eastern Ukraine that have seen a series of pro-Russian rallies. The Ukrainian parliament has endorsed a presidential decree for a partial military mobilization to call up 40,000 reservists to counter Russia’s military actions.
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Syria Recaptures Key Strategic Town Near Lebanon
The Syrian military says it has recaptured the town of Yabrud, the last rebel stronghold near the Lebanese border. Government forces and Lebanese allies from the group Hezbollah have besieged the town for weeks in an attempt to control key transport routes. The opposition had held Yabrud for most of the duration of the conflict.
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Syrian Conflict Enters 4th Year
A group of Syrian Americans rallied outside the White House on Saturday to mark the three-year anniversary of the protests that set off Syria’s civil war.
Jehad Ajlani: "If I raise the flag in this area, that gives me a lot of satisfaction, and it shows the people in Syria that we’re here for them. They’re not by themselves."
An estimated 146,000 people have been killed since the conflict began on March 15, 2011, roughly half of them civilians. We’ll have more on Syria later in the broadcast.
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U.S. Delivers New Weapons Aid to Iraq
The U.S. has confirmed a new round of weapons shipments to Iraq. The U.S. embassy in Baghdad says nearly 100 Hellfire missiles and hundreds of thousands of ammunition rounds have been delivered this month. The Obama administration has accelerated weapons aid in recent months to support the Iraqi government’s campaign against militant groups. This comes amidst mounting sectarian violence set off by the U.S. invasion in 2003.
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U.S. Forces Seize Stolen Libyan Oil Tanker
U.S. forces have boarded and taken control of an oil tanker seized by militants at a Libyan port earlier this month. The operation occurred in international waters southeast of Cyprus. The Pentagon says no one was hurt. The tanker’s seizure sparked a political crisis in Libya, leading parliament to remove Prime Minister Ali Zeidan.
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Plane May Have Flown for Hours After Tracking Disabled
The search continues for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 more than a week after its disappearance. Malaysian investigators say they believe someone in the cockpit may have diverted the plane and flown for several hours after deliberately switching off its communication and tracking systems. The plane’s pilots and crew members have been under intense investigation since the plane vanished somewhere north of Kuala Lumpur.
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Obama Orders "More Humane" Deportation Procedures Amidst Political Pressure
President Obama has pledged to modify his enforcement of immigration laws following a wave of protests against record deportations. The number of undocumented immigrants sent abroad under Obama’s watch is set to reach two million. At a White House meeting on Friday, Obama told immigration activists he would direct the Department of Homeland Security to help find an approach that acts "more humanely." The changes reportedly include halting deportations for most people never convicted of crimes, and focusing on those with criminal records or who are deemed a danger to public safety. Obama has long maintained he has done all he can on immigration reform within the confines of the law, and that Congress will have to overcome Republican obstruction in order to bring additional change. But the White House apparently changed its mind after a flood of criticism in recent weeks that brought Obama the moniker of "deporter-in-chief." Top Democrats have also started pressuring Obama amidst concern Latino voters will stay home in the coming midterm elections.
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Judge Strikes Down Arkansas’ 12-Week Abortion Ban
A federal judge has struck down an Arkansas law banning abortions at 12 weeks of pregnancy. The measure became one of the harshest in the country after its passage last year. In her ruling, District Judge Susan Webber Wright let stand a requirement that a woman seeking an abortion first undergo an ultrasound to detect a fetal heartbeat.
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Insurers Ordered to Offer Health Plans to Same-Sex Couples
The Obama administration has issued new rules that bar discrimination against same-sex couples in health insurance plans. Starting in 2015, insurers will have to offer coverage to same-sex couples if they already provide them for heterosexual couples.
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U.S. General Reaches Plea Deal in Sexual Assault Case
A U.S. general accused in a high-profile sexual assault case has reached a plea deal at his trial. Military prosecutors have agreed to drop sexual assault charges against Brigadier General Jeffrey Sinclair in return for a guilty plea on lesser offenses. The accuser, an Army captain, testified Sinclair twice forced her to perform oral sex during their three-year affair in Afghanistan and threatened to murder her and her family if she told anyone. Under his plea, Sinclair will admit to "mistreatment" but avoid charges that would have forced him to register as a sex offender if convicted.
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U.S. Relinquishes Control of Internet Domains
The Obama administration has announced the U.S. will give up the administering of domain names and web addresses on the Internet. A new regulatory body will be created to exert formal control. Fadi Chehadé of the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers welcomed the move.
Fadi Chehadé: "This is a moment of triumph. This is a moment where the multistakeholder model shows that it is mature and ready and we no longer need the stewardship of one government. We now need the world’s stewardship to come and ensure that our functions are performed as requested by the global community."
The U.S. has faced calls to relinquish its control of Internet addresses in the wake of the revelations over extensive NSA spying.
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New Clashes Break Out in Venezuela Protests
Clashes broke out in Venezuela on Sunday amidst continued anti-government protests. Thousands of demonstrators marched on a Venezuelan army base to protest what they claimed to be Cuban interference in Venezuela’s military. At least 28 people have been killed and over 300 wounded in the last six weeks, marking Venezuela’s worst violence in 10 years.
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Haitians File New Suit Against U.N. over Cholera Outbreak
A group of Haitians and their advocates have filed a new class action lawsuit against the United Nations for the cholera outbreak in Haiti that has killed more than 8,000 people. The disease strain has been traced to U.N. peacekeepers from Nepal deployed after the January 2010 earthquake. The U.N. rejected a formal petition for compensating the victims last year. Federal prosecutors in New York recently sided with the U.N.’s claim to immunity from legal redress.
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U.N. Urges Probe of Drone Strikes
A new United Nations report has called for independent probes of a series of drone attacks that have killed civilians around the world. Ben Emmerson, U.N. special rapporteur on human rights, identified 30 drone strikes – most of them by the U.S. – in which civilians were killed, badly injured or threatened. They include a U.S. drone strike on a wedding party in Yemen that killed as many as 12 civilians in December. While drone strikes in Pakistan appear to have declined, strikes in Yemen increased and civilian casualties tripled in Afghanistan last year.
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Farmworkers End 5-State March with Florida Vigil
And hundreds of farmworkers and their supporters have wrapped up a five-state, nine-day march in their latest effort to improve conditions at the fields and farms serving major food companies. The Coalition of Immokalee Workers’ "Now is the Time" march focused on urging the food giants Publix and Wendy’s to join the Fair Food Program, which ensures improved wages and working conditions for farmworkers in the companies’ supply chains. The march set off from Florida, reaching as far north as Ohio before returning home for an overnight vigil on Saturday outside a Publix store in the town of Lakeland.
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